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The Economist's poll of economists: Examining the candidates

In our special report on the election we analyse the two candidatesa€™ economic plans. Here, we ask professional economists to give us their views

AS THE financial crisis pushes the economy back to the top of votersa€™ concerns, Barack Obama is starting to open up a clear lead over John McCain in the opinion polls. But among those who study economics for a living, Mr Obamaa€™s lead is much more commanding. A survey of academic economists by The Economist finds the majoritya€”at times by overwhelming marginsa€”believe Mr Obama has the superior economic plan, a firmer grasp of economics and will appoint better economic advisers.

Our survey is not, by any means, a scientific poll of all economists. We e-mailed a questionnaire to 683 research associates, all we could track down, of the National Bureau of Economic Research, Americaa€™s premier association of applied academic economists, though the NBER itself played no role in the survey. A total of 142 responded, of whom 46% identified themselves as Democrats, 10% as Republicans and 44% as neither. This skewed party breakdown may reflect academiaa€™s Democratic tilt, or possibly Democratsa€™ greater propensity to respond. Still, even if we exclude respondents with a party identification, Mr Obama retains a strong edgea€”though the McCain campaign should be buoyed by the fact that 530 economists have signed a statement endorsing his plans. ...


 

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